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‎The iPhone 17 models introduced in September have been a hit both domestically in the US and in Apple’s other critical market, China. They’ve enticed more people to upgrade, leading to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both markets, according to the researchers. The US company also is benefiting from a cooling of US-China trade tensions and a depreciating dollar that has boosted purchases in emerging markets, they added.

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The growth will propel Apple past longtime rival Samsung Electronics Co. this year, according to Counterpoint’s figures. Shipments of the iPhone are set to grow at 10% in 2025, compared with 4.6% for Samsung.

The overall smartphone market is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple projected to claim a share of 19.4%. It will be the first time since 2011 that the company takes the No. 1 position.

Looking further into the future, [Counterpoint analyst Yang] Wang sees Apple extending its lead. The upcoming 2026 debut of a foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e will both help sales. And Apple is expected to follow those models with a major iPhone design revamp in 2027, as Bloomberg News has previously reported.